In the fall of the year 1918, a bad and terrible flu swept over the planet
killing more people in America
than were killed in the last century of warfare combined. As many as 50 million
worldwide died horrible deaths as they either slowly drowned from fluids that
filled their lungs or from other complications. Yes, influenza can and has
enacted terrible suffering worldwide; a scenario continues to this day.
In America alone, the CDC
has estimated that over a period of 30 years, between 1976 and 2006,
flu-associated deaths in the United
States range from a low of about 3,000 to a
high of about 49,000 people. But, that’s not the scary part!
Not counting the pandemic outbreak of the
Swine flu, it’s now been
over forty years since the world has seen a novel or new version of the flu.
Fortunately, the influenza type Swine Flu (type A H1N1) was not very serious,
but on a more ominous note it was highly contagious. In just three weeks, after
first appearing in Mexico,
the Swine Flu was seen in 20 countries on five continents! After just the first
year, it has been estimated that 1 in 7 people have been exposed. And, even
though this flu was
relatively
mild, it still managed to kill a lot of people. One
study
estimated that ‘globally there were 201,200 respiratory deaths (range
105,700—395,600) with an additional 83,300 cardiovascular deaths
(46,000—179,900) associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. 80% of the
respiratory and cardiovascular deaths were in people younger than 65 years and
51% occurred in Southeast Asia and Africa.’
So, its apparent that even a
mild version of the flu can result in very
high mortality and morbidity rates, if it also happens to be highly infectious!
Now consider the so-call
Bird Flu or as it’s most scientifically
known, Type A H5N1. This flu is a true killer, killing as many as 50% of the
people who contract it! That’s why it’s also referred to a
HPAI
which stands for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza.
Thankfully,
HPAI does not spread very easily to humans…at
least not yet. Recent studies have indicated that the virus is contained mostly
to birds at this time. However, they’ve also indicated that this particular
version may be just a few mutations (or genetic tweaks) away from becoming an
airborne
Fluageddon! (A situation that could develop if it manages to
gain the contagiousness of the Swine flu while retaining its high level of
pathogenicity)!
Such a flu, should it be let loose on the world, would make the movie
Contagion
seem like a walk in the park! Imagine catching a ‘cold’ where you had only a
fifty-fifty chance of survival! Imagine a ‘cold’ so infectious that tens of
millions came down with it all in a short time. Emergency services, hospitals
and clinic would be almost instantly overwhelmed. Key personnel who maintain
essential services like gasoline, electricity and water might easily abandon
their posts setting up instances of widespread outages that would only fuel a
growing panic. Such a dastardly flu could easily topple governments and start
wars all across the globe….
But, what are the chances of this ever happening, you might well ask? I
don’t think anyone does, but I’ll tell you this! The
World Health
Organization along with the
CDC are growing
increasingly uneasy as time goes on. One article,
How
Worried Should We Be’ published in Nature describes some of the reasons
behind their concern.
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